MLB pre-season

Last year I backed the Twins at 9/2 at the start of the season, but was able to back them again during a poor run during the season at 40-1. It is such a long season that the prices available now are likely to be higher at some point after April. So the main thing now is to take a long-term view as to the strengths of the teams and either back against win-makeups available, or look for the value during the season. In that light I've had some money on the Brewers who have a nice rotation, offensive potential and a good vibe and are far too big at 9-1 behind the Cubs who have spent money but provide little evidence it will all fit together, and Cardinals who may be defending the WS but have a starting rotation from the bullpen and I'll take on any side with Kip Wells as no 2 starter. To a lesser extent 6-1 about the Rangers in a 4-horse race where the Angels have no offence, Oakland's ability to rebuild and challenge simultaneously is challenged again, and Seattle seems to be directionless, is a price that might disappear rapidly. Where that doesn't apply is where the bookies have something totally overpriced and after a decent start the price just won't be matched again, particularly for the World Series or Home Run market. To back the Pirates for the World Series may seem like lunacy, but with as string a (heavily-lefty) rotation like they have, 200-1 was too big a temptation for me. With LaRoche to supplement Bay and Sanchez the offence is upgraded, and the clincher for me was the possibility of Eldred playing the outfield, which would give the offence another big bat, not the strongest of lineups, but then the Yankees and Box do, and Detroit don't so where does that get you? In terms of home runs, Soriano should be close in his new environs, but at a bigger price (80-1) I've taken Bill Hall to continue an upward power progression, and at a massive 150-1 Prince Fielder, a potential future homerun champ, to deliver a little early.

A perfect bet

To me, the perfect bet: is based on method rather than selection so that no thought needs to be placed, "blind" in other words; it is rewarding in terms of watching the event unfold, and it in fact enhances an event; it is a value bet and inherently profitable.
I might have found it. For a few months I've been betting blind on Hills' "match action" on live televised football games, backing over 100 points. With 10 points a goal, sending off and penalty, and 3 points a corner or yellow card, it brightens up games in which I have no obvious interest, saving me from backing a side I don't like at the biggest price, and staying clear of a big loser in the first goalscorer markets.
I've looked at the stats from about 4 months and am showing a 30 times profit to a level stake. If this is restricted to just league games (english and spanish) then this roughly doubles as cup games have only made the 100+ point mark a couple of times. Most successes come in games where both sides are committed to going forward and the game is quite close - in unevenly-matched games even when the better side scores a lot of goals early they tend to ease off and not score "points", but then to discriminate between the merits of different matches and to start looking at the price, which varies, but not markedly, would be to lose the systematic appeal of the bet.

A tale of two Taylors

There are a host of markets available for the forthcoming World Cup but a preliminary glance has offered up one value bet. Bet365 has a limited list of leading wicket takers, and Jerome Taylor is 50-1. While there is no each way, I'm happy to venture into this as it is the most outstanding of a few prices which they see differently to other bookies. In a face-off with Malinga BlueSquare have Taylor the slight favourite yet 365 have the Slinger at 9-1. Generally, though WI bowlers are bizarrely missing from most markets Taylor is low to mid 20s, and the 50-1 looks interesting for a genuinely quick, fresh bowler. I think the dull accumulating middle overs take away from the chances of a spinner regularly taking most wickets, and Taylor both steams in with the new ball, and bowls quick at the end so has two periods of wicket-taking potential. As WI leading bowler he is unlikely to be rotated as they may have a couple of tight calls in the group stages as well as public pressure to play a full-strength side each game, and he should have the youth to be able to do so. This should guarantee a good number of games to take wickets as against a stronger side which might progress further but rest or rotate bowlers. I've also backed Ross Taylor for a few batting markets as he looks an awesome striker with the ability to make big scores, and to a lesser extent Chamara Silva, who looked a classy and well-priced alternative to the obvious Sri Lankan highest scorers.

Racing first scorer

I saw a Santander central defender, Ezequiel Garay, take 2 of the best freekicks of the season last week, scoring with one. He goes up for corners and is good in the air. The commentators were surprised by his shooting prowess, and I don't think the bookies are too aware of it yet. As they weren't televised this week only 1 bookie priced up first scorer, at 33-1, luckily each way, and I benefitted from the discovery that he also takes penalties. Any penalty taker is worth taking at that price, and throw in the distance shooting and aerial potential it's a massive price, especially when Santander look to be solid and play direct through Zigic, looking much more at set pieces than most Spanish sides. Most bookies price up the live games, sometimes with a lack of knowledge, so there might be even bigger prices to be had some weeks, and hopefully the bookies who do price up non-live games don't catch on too quickly. He's also likely to move on to a bigger side soon which will inevitably diminish the price so I hope to fill my boots while I get chance.

Sunday afternoon

Just as imagined over the last couple of months, the eventing all came together, and Phillips won. After watching the final showjumping round which won it, I've just been sitting back watching the bookies and exchange reactions. I watched it on interactive, it's just started on terrestrial, and it's a Sunday afternoon before bank holiday, and the sports personality market has been slow to react this year, so the market has been a bit slow, so I've hoovered up a few prices from slow bookies between 16 and 28, and watched the prices all come in. Zara went favourite at 16.38 on betfair, and with the first of the bookies, betdirect at 16.41. I imagine once more people find out about the result, and the snowball effect takes hold she'll go odds on. With such a charismatic and popular personality, the spotlight is unlikely to be lost between now and December, and there's the medal ceremony to refocus memories and emotions whereas Murray only has performances. I can't imagine a Ryder Cup win over an embarrassingly weak US side would give enough opportunity for an individual to come to prominence, or Murray winning the US open, and only the First ashes Test, perhaps a Monty 10for or a Freddie allround match-winning performance stand in the way of a very nice win.

Thinking again

My betting over the last few months has been erratic. I haven't had time to study form and possible outcomes too much but that hasn't stopped me placing bets, which have inevitably been losing ones, simply following money or impulse. As I've got a bit more time on my hands now, I need to finally find a winner from the hapless and hopeless group of British sportspeople who will be named sports personality. I've had lots of bets on this at value prices, when the opportunity arose for someone to come to prominence in a way which would capture and sustain the public interest and imagination. I was hit by injuries, Rooney and Flintoff chiefly, and rank bad performances. There are now so few sporting opportunities left that it won't take a huge achievement to win it, and spare us from a non-sportsman winning the award. Zara Phillips is the European eventing champion, and I think a gold in the team or individual event at Aachen would put her in the frame for SP. The BBC will be covering it, so as a rarity will have extensive highlights to plug; the Fools on Horses is in the recent memory of viewers; she has a popular and charismatic personality; a female was unfortunate to win it last year - though Phillips still won the sportswoman of the year, despite Macarthur and Radcliffe leading the market for the main award most of the year; her mother won it to add to the sentimental value. All in all, the 125 and 100- 1 I've got looks hugely interesting. Basically I think if she wins the gold, she wins sports personality. She was 8-1 prior to the European which she won, and has seemingly improved since, so the opportunity seems a good one.

Settling down

The start of the baseball season coincided with giving up smoking. The result was I lost a bit of control, gambling wildly as a crux to overcome my nicotine withdrawal, and the advent of baseball games gave me ample scope to do so.
This has settled down now and I'm getting into a good pattern with my baseball bets. One factor which I'll put a lot more store in this season, for the sake of my nerves as much as anything else, is the quality of the closer. One of my most crushing losses last year was a blown save by Eddie Guardado, and I'm just glad I didn't have to watch the Dodgers throw a 5-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth last night.
In this and in other big bets I've had bad injury hits: Gagne and Brazoban have needed surgery, leading to the closing situation above; Shane Bond won't appear for Gloucestershire this year; and Rooney looks doubtful for the World Cup so I might as well throw away my substantial slips on an England win and Rooney as sports personality. But then again, one disappointment must always leave a betting opportunity, and with England so much less likely to do well without Rooney, the sports personality opens up again for Flintoff, the beneficiary of the injury to Vaughan in that he has chance to captain and remain high-profile, and I managed to get on before the price reacted.