Betting notes

MLB pre-season

2007-03-18T00:11:00.000-07:00

Last year I backed the Twins at 9/2 at the start of the season, but was able to back them again during a poor run during the season at 40-1. It is such a long season that the prices available now are likely to be higher at some point after April. So the main thing now is to take a long-term view as to the strengths of the teams and either back against win-makeups available, or look for the value during the season. In that light I've had some money on the Brewers who have a nice rotation, offensive potential and a good vibe and are far too big at 9-1 behind the Cubs who have spent money but provide little evidence it will all fit together, and Cardinals who may be defending the WS but have a starting rotation from the bullpen and I'll take on any side with Kip Wells as no 2 starter. To a lesser extent 6-1 about the Rangers in a 4-horse race where the Angels have no offence, Oakland's ability to rebuild and challenge simultaneously is challenged again, and Seattle seems to be directionless, is a price that might disappear rapidly. Where that doesn't apply is where the bookies have something totally overpriced and after a decent start the price just won't be matched again, particularly for the World Series or Home Run market. To back the Pirates for the World Series may seem like lunacy, but with as string a (heavily-lefty) rotation like they have, 200-1 was too big a temptation for me. With LaRoche to supplement Bay and Sanchez the offence is upgraded, and the clincher for me was the possibility of Eldred playing the outfield, which would give the offence another big bat, not the strongest of lineups, but then the Yankees and Box do, and Detroit don't so where does that get you? In terms of home runs, Soriano should be close in his new environs, but at a bigger price (80-1) I've taken Bill Hall to continue an upward power progression, and at a massive 150-1 Prince Fielder, a potential future homerun champ, to deliver a little early.

A perfect bet

2007-03-17T23:42:00.000-07:00

To me, the perfect bet: is based on method rather than selection so that no thought needs to be placed, "blind" in other words; it is rewarding in terms of watching the event unfold, and it in fact enhances an event; it is a value bet and inherently profitable.
I might have found it. For a few months I've been betting blind on Hills' "match action" on live televised football games, backing over 100 points. With 10 points a goal, sending off and penalty, and 3 points a corner or yellow card, it brightens up games in which I have no obvious interest, saving me from backing a side I don't like at the biggest price, and staying clear of a big loser in the first goalscorer markets.
I've looked at the stats from about 4 months and am showing a 30 times profit to a level stake. If this is restricted to just league games (english and spanish) then this roughly doubles as cup games have only made the 100+ point mark a couple of times. Most successes come in games where both sides are committed to going forward and the game is quite close - in unevenly-matched games even when the better side scores a lot of goals early they tend to ease off and not score "points", but then to discriminate between the merits of different matches and to start looking at the price, which varies, but not markedly, would be to lose the systematic appeal of the bet.

A tale of two Taylors

2007-02-28T06:03:00.000-08:00

There are a host of markets available for the forthcoming World Cup but a preliminary glance has offered up one value bet. Bet365 has a limited list of leading wicket takers, and Jerome Taylor is 50-1. While there is no each way, I'm happy to venture into this as it is the most outstanding of a few prices which they see differently to other bookies. In a face-off with Malinga BlueSquare have Taylor the slight favourite yet 365 have the Slinger at 9-1. Generally, though WI bowlers are bizarrely missing from most markets Taylor is low to mid 20s, and the 50-1 looks interesting for a genuinely quick, fresh bowler. I think the dull accumulating middle overs take away from the chances of a spinner regularly taking most wickets, and Taylor both steams in with the new ball, and bowls quick at the end so has two periods of wicket-taking potential. As WI leading bowler he is unlikely to be rotated as they may have a couple of tight calls in the group stages as well as public pressure to play a full-strength side each game, and he should have the youth to be able to do so. This should guarantee a good number of games to take wickets as against a stronger side which might progress further but rest or rotate bowlers. I've also backed Ross Taylor for a few batting markets as he looks an awesome striker with the ability to make big scores, and to a lesser extent Chamara Silva, who looked a classy and well-priced alternative to the obvious Sri Lankan highest scorers.

Racing first scorer

2006-11-27T01:23:00.000-08:00

I saw a Santander central defender, Ezequiel Garay, take 2 of the best freekicks of the season last week, scoring with one. He goes up for corners and is good in the air. The commentators were surprised by his shooting prowess, and I don't think the bookies are too aware of it yet. As they weren't televised this week only 1 bookie priced up first scorer, at 33-1, luckily each way, and I benefitted from the discovery that he also takes penalties. Any penalty taker is worth taking at that price, and throw in the distance shooting and aerial potential it's a massive price, especially when Santander look to be solid and play direct through Zigic, looking much more at set pieces than most Spanish sides. Most bookies price up the live games, sometimes with a lack of knowledge, so there might be even bigger prices to be had some weeks, and hopefully the bookies who do price up non-live games don't catch on too quickly. He's also likely to move on to a bigger side soon which will inevitably diminish the price so I hope to fill my boots while I get chance.

Sunday afternoon

2006-08-27T08:52:00.000-07:00

Just as imagined over the last couple of months, the eventing all came together, and Phillips won. After watching the final showjumping round which won it, I've just been sitting back watching the bookies and exchange reactions. I watched it on interactive, it's just started on terrestrial, and it's a Sunday afternoon before bank holiday, and the sports personality market has been slow to react this year, so the market has been a bit slow, so I've hoovered up a few prices from slow bookies between 16 and 28, and watched the prices all come in. Zara went favourite at 16.38 on betfair, and with the first of the bookies, betdirect at 16.41. I imagine once more people find out about the result, and the snowball effect takes hold she'll go odds on. With such a charismatic and popular personality, the spotlight is unlikely to be lost between now and December, and there's the medal ceremony to refocus memories and emotions whereas Murray only has performances. I can't imagine a Ryder Cup win over an embarrassingly weak US side would give enough opportunity for an individual to come to prominence, or Murray winning the US open, and only the First ashes Test, perhaps a Monty 10for or a Freddie allround match-winning performance stand in the way of a very nice win.

Thinking again

2006-08-04T01:09:00.000-07:00

My betting over the last few months has been erratic. I haven't had time to study form and possible outcomes too much but that hasn't stopped me placing bets, which have inevitably been losing ones, simply following money or impulse. As I've got a bit more time on my hands now, I need to finally find a winner from the hapless and hopeless group of British sportspeople who will be named sports personality. I've had lots of bets on this at value prices, when the opportunity arose for someone to come to prominence in a way which would capture and sustain the public interest and imagination. I was hit by injuries, Rooney and Flintoff chiefly, and rank bad performances. There are now so few sporting opportunities left that it won't take a huge achievement to win it, and spare us from a non-sportsman winning the award. Zara Phillips is the European eventing champion, and I think a gold in the team or individual event at Aachen would put her in the frame for SP. The BBC will be covering it, so as a rarity will have extensive highlights to plug; the Fools on Horses is in the recent memory of viewers; she has a popular and charismatic personality; a female was unfortunate to win it last year - though Phillips still won the sportswoman of the year, despite Macarthur and Radcliffe leading the market for the main award most of the year; her mother won it to add to the sentimental value. All in all, the 125 and 100- 1 I've got looks hugely interesting. Basically I think if she wins the gold, she wins sports personality. She was 8-1 prior to the European which she won, and has seemingly improved since, so the opportunity seems a good one.

Settling down

2006-05-01T01:04:00.000-07:00

The start of the baseball season coincided with giving up smoking. The result was I lost a bit of control, gambling wildly as a crux to overcome my nicotine withdrawal, and the advent of baseball games gave me ample scope to do so.
This has settled down now and I'm getting into a good pattern with my baseball bets. One factor which I'll put a lot more store in this season, for the sake of my nerves as much as anything else, is the quality of the closer. One of my most crushing losses last year was a blown save by Eddie Guardado, and I'm just glad I didn't have to watch the Dodgers throw a 5-0 lead in the bottom of the ninth last night.
In this and in other big bets I've had bad injury hits: Gagne and Brazoban have needed surgery, leading to the closing situation above; Shane Bond won't appear for Gloucestershire this year; and Rooney looks doubtful for the World Cup so I might as well throw away my substantial slips on an England win and Rooney as sports personality. But then again, one disappointment must always leave a betting opportunity, and with England so much less likely to do well without Rooney, the sports personality opens up again for Flintoff, the beneficiary of the injury to Vaughan in that he has chance to captain and remain high-profile, and I managed to get on before the price reacted.

Whoever he is

2006-03-23T04:11:00.000-08:00

Browsing novelty markets I noticed some huge differentials in the prices offered, across 3 bookies for the Nobel Peace Prize. Paddy Power seem to be patriotically favouring Geldof and Bono, but showed some interestingly large prices. With the other two showing 7 and 8-1, they had someone called Thich Quang Do at 50-1. A quick lookup informed me that he is a Vietnamese buddhist and I got on quick, as I don't remember seeing such a vast price variance between bookies for a long time. I also took the 33-1 on Jeff Halper, against the 6 and 10-1 also available. I'm intrigued now about the price-change triggers bookies build in. The small bet I put on Do was sufficient to instantly bring the price in to 33-1 (the time I placed the bet and the off-the-wall nature of the market convince me that my stake was sufficient to cause this), while a larger potential return (though I hit a low maximum stake) with Sporting Bet on Walcott to score first England goal at Wembley wasn't enough to alter the 80-1. (Recent experience shows that SkyBet are another to react almost instantly to any bet at a big price.) The lesson I suppose I learn from this is to look out for interesting markets where value is gained from bookies taking very different views, to research it quickly, and to make the first bet sizeable as it is likely to be the only bet taken at that price.

Planning disasters

2006-03-20T04:44:00.000-08:00

The New Year car breakdown which caused me to miss a bet on an England bowler to take 10 wickets in a Test also lost me a chance to cash in on the near-certainty that Wembley wouldn't be ready for the Cup Final. As more problems shake the new stadium I cast around for a way to take advantage and had a look at the market for first England scorer in the new stadium. Though not able to break into Arsenal's first team, Theo Walcott has been mentioned for the World Cup squad and it seems only a matter of time, which may be precipitated by the World Cup fallout and a new manager, before he makes the squad at least. The longer the building takes, the more chance Walcott will figure in the first squad to play there, and if he does, he will be about a tenth the 80-1 currently on offer to be the first England scorer.

Learning from experience

2006-03-18T04:24:00.000-08:00

My new view on snooker events having been a success with Lee in the Welsh Open, I'll now have a look at future tournaments with more scrutiny. I based that on the fact that with a couple of defeats for leading players, one half of the draw opened up for a player in form. With the draw made for the whole event there appears to be much scope for analysing snooker events on this basis, and the odds often seem more reflective of a player's record or ability than the draw itself. The top half of the World Championship looks wide open. Murphy looks too error-prone, I can't say I rate Doherty, and Maguire has been awful this season. Barry Hawkins has already beaten a quality player, Junhui, in qualifying, is in form, and is on the up, and 40-1 looks a good price. I will keep an eye on it, and should he fall early, will still look to an each way price from that half of the draw.

Moving on slowly

2006-03-18T04:16:00.000-08:00

I think I'm just about over the disappointment of the baseball, but I can only reflect on what a good bet I had on. Venezuela were one hit away from beating Dominican Republic and would now have been strong favourites. Not only that, but my other thoughts and predictions were spot on: I now have a good each way price on Japan, and the US indeed treated it like an allstar game and were light on starting pitching.
I did suffer a little from making more conservative bets than usual on Cheltenham during which I made proper study of available form and advice, generally during the middle of the night as I'd got into strange sleeping patterns to be able to watch the baseball, and made a healthy profit on each day. I will remember to do my homework and invest more substantially for big horse racing events as I have a very good record in those quality events where the form stands up.

Need to get out more

2006-03-15T00:46:00.000-08:00

I placed a bet with 365 on an outsider at Cheltenham and, as the oddschecker page refreshed a minute later, it showed the price had moved in from 28 to 22-1. I'm sure this was down to lots of other bets over a longer period of time, but the seemingly instant price cut could, in the mind of someone who needs to get out more, been in reaction to my bet. Such is my life.

Back to reality

2006-03-14T20:42:00.000-08:00

Back to normal expectations now as Venezuela go out. The frustration of the defeat is enormous given the circumstances and having called it almost perfectly. They had to beat Dominincan Republic at some stage and lost 2-1 on a passed ball. The vaunted DR offence was shut down, one hit between Tejada, Ortiz, Pujols and Beltre as anticipated. But Venezuela, against an inferior pitching side managed just one hit. One hit. Even the tiniest amount of offence would have brought a win and to be beaten by an error just heightens the wrongness of it all. But I must admit I am perfectly happy with how I predicted it all. Firstly, that Canada looked solid - they beat US- that Japan were a good each way price- they would have been in the semis already but for a dodgy call and may still end up winning it- and of course that Venezuela should have won the whole thing. Their MLB batting stars will be glad it is pre- and not post-season so they can go and join their clubs rather than have to go back to Venezuela. I doubt they will get much of a reception even at the end of the year. This result was little more than a disgrace.

All things considered

2006-03-13T05:31:00.000-08:00

Venezuela are still hanging on by a thread to a chance of winning the WBC though now is hopefully the time that the pitching depth comes to the fore. Should they win tonight it will be the anticipated showdown with the Dominican Republic, but for a semi-final, not final place. With Garcia against presumably Perez I'd like the match-up, and then with Santana to go again in the semi it all rests on Zambrano tonight against an impassioned Puerto Rico. But it would all have been plain sailing aside from an important factor I overlooked: the manager. Aside from pitching to Ortiz at one down in the 9th with first base open, Sojo has made 3 more glaring errors: insisting on playing Cabrera out of position at 3rd lost him Mora and his vital offence; pulling Santana after 5 against Cuba 13 short of his pitch count when he put him back just 7 short in the effectively meaningless first round game, also showing ignorance of the momentum Cuba had gained when Venezuela couldn't score with bases loaded and none out; losing the momentum gained from winning the Caribbean series - the players look leaden and pressurised and the offence just hasn't got going - totally opposite to how they were a month ago. I still have a slight hope but I'm glad to have had a serious bet on it anyway, I've thought so much about it over a long period of time and you have to put your money where your mouth is. It's also nice to have the chance of a big payout from time to time.

An eye for detail

2006-03-07T05:36:00.000-08:00

Browsing the Spring Training games I noticed that William Hill's coupon showed Seattle having 2 games, not unusual of course to play split-squad games, but it was strange that they were odds-on against the Dodgers, so I thought I'd explore more to see, particularly with pitching injuries, who was getting on the bus and who staying to play LA, before I piled into the Dodgers. It turned out to be a mistype on the web site, and should have been St Louis, not Seattle. I notified WH, they made the correction, and gave me a goodwill few quid in my account, details of which of course I had included in my Email. Sadly obsessional about detail I might be, but it's nice to be appreciated.

MLB season bets

2006-03-04T23:37:00.000-08:00

Most of the transactions have been completed for the upcoming season and as the first Classic and Spring Training games have started I felt it time to make some divisional bets. I would never back against the Yankees, and wouldn't back them for the division at long odds-on; St Louis look no value against a potentially-stronger Cubs; and while the Mets' huge investments should give them every chance experience shows you could never back against the Braves. So, left with only 3 divisions to analyse. The perennially disappointing Giants are favourites for the NLW, which means there must be value available, and I think the Dodgers represent it at 2-1. I think the pitching looks a lot stronger than last year, Gagne should be back healthy, and there looks to be enough offence. I think the White Sox are in for a fall after winning so many close games last year, and while Cleveland looked the team in the ascendancy, I think that momentum cannot carry them all the way past a shaky rotation. Instead I've gone for the Twins, the rotation looks good, and it will need everyone to contribute offensively, but at 11/2 they're worth a shot. Also, for the rotation and speed, rather than offensive explosiveness, I think the Angels are the most solid bet for the ALW. I also think, after years of frustrations against them, it's better to get Johan Santana and the LAA bullpen on my side.

Laying bets to retain sanity

2006-03-04T10:05:00.000-08:00

I've never been keen on laying bets on the basis that I only put bets on that I can afford, that the pleasure comes in watching how my selection performs, and that laying guarantees at least one losing bet. This afternoon has proved that there are situations when laying might be essential for mental well-being. I backed Stephen Lee at 40-1 for the Welsh Open when his half of the draw opened up and I remembered seeing him in some form recently - the Malta Open I think, and with half the odds a place I've watched his semi-final this afternoon with some interest. At 5-3 up in a first to 6 I could have backed Hamilton at 6-1 and guaranteed a nice return and no anxiety, but instead suffered huge mental torment as, somewhat inevitably Hamilton fought back to force a final frame, which I am now watching with my nerves in tatters. But then, I suppose that's what betting, and particularly thoughtful betting, is all about, that I've experienced huge emotional highs and lows over 5 hours of what has for an impartial observer, been a rather scrappy and error-strewn match. Writing this blog entry has helped to calm my nerves, and as I finish it, Lee has just won. A cigarette and a sit down in a darkened room are in order.

Home advantage

2006-03-02T00:50:00.000-08:00

I think even in a sport such as snooker where the crowd is not particularly vociferous, there is still something to be said for home advantage, particularly in a patriotic country such as Wales, so I decided to pick out a Welsh player for the Welsh Open. While Stevens and Williams have the obvious proven records, I don't regard them as being on an upward curve, and while Dominic Dale has showed some recent form, he still looked short of the class and consistency required to win a tournament, so I took a plunge on Ryan Day at 100-1, who has from memory shown some glimpses of potential. If he makes a good show, I'll look more seriously at "home" advantage in non-team sports played internationally, golf and tennis being the immediately obvious avenues.

Lazy bookies

2006-02-28T12:42:00.000-08:00

I notice that William Hill have finally woken up to the fact that 10-1 was a huge price for Venezuela to win the World Baseball Classic and cut the price to 7-1, more in line with other bookies. This is good news for me as the price was just too tempting and of course there are no certainties in sport and I was in danger of putting too many eggs in my Venezuelan basket. Price sleepiness is one thing, but not keeping up with results is another. BetDirect often offer strange prices on "special" bets, often standout ones, but 2 nights after the most recent eviction on "Just the two of us", they are still offering less than 4-1 on Matt Allwright (whoever he may be) to win the competition he was eliminated from 48 hours ago. On the presumption that there must correspondingly be value available I backed Nicky Campbell at 16-1, about double the price on offer elsewhere, and, having watched the programme for a couple of minutes last week and seeing he came top of the judges votes at least I know he has some ability, unlike some of my previous wagers on such events, the leaden-footed Patsy Palmer springing to mind.

Ice hockey, as if I know anything about it

2006-02-21T00:41:00.000-08:00

I have next to no knowledge of ice hockey, but I was intrigued by the markets for the NHL. I like to have plenty and a variety of things to keep an eye on though, and if it turns out to be a decent bet then all the better. I noticed that 3 of 4 bookies have Ottawa as clear favourites for the NHL, with Stan James best price 9-2 and offering half the odds top 2 which seems a good bet to guarantee involvement to the later stages. They also make Dallas joint favourites at the same price, while others rank them 5th or 6th best at prices up to 14-1. So someone's clearly got it wrong and at small stakes I've taken both best prices and now have an additional sporting interest.

England bowling bet

2006-02-20T11:31:00.000-08:00

The market for England's leading wicket-taker in India is fairly open and there are are a few factors to take into consideration. The England pace attack is clearly unsuited to the conditions and the pitches. With the quartet quoted between about 3-1 and 9-2 and little to pick between them there is no obvious value bet. But the slow bowlers are likely to be just as innocuous, and none of the 3 are certain starters. It is likely that very few wickets will be taken by England in a Test series scenario, and that those that do will be spread around with no standout performer. I remember Graeme Hick once being leading wicket-taker in India, and I think that a surprise could be in store again when few wickets need to be taken to be top. As a near-certain starter, sure to be used as a fill-in in tiring conditions, and perhaps liable to induce some over-confident strokes, Ian Bell looks one of the better 100-1 bets I've seen.

Baseball again

2006-02-15T00:55:00.000-08:00

The draw has obviously been set up for the US to progress as unhindered as possible to the final. The other strongest side in their half, and reflected in the betting, is Japan, so a semi-final between the two is anticipated. Which makes the 20-1 price offered by VC a bit large, with 1/3 the odds each way, so, should that all pan out, it's giving better than 5-1 on Japan in a one-off game which is way too big, especially when the USA has no obvious ace pitcher for that scenario, and of course, should they do so, then 20-1 on a one-off final. I don't genuinely think Japan without their MLB stars will be strong enough to beat USA but they're likely to be more committed pre-season, and the price is just too good not to take.

World Baseball Classic revisited

2006-02-08T00:54:00.000-08:00

I'm trying to stand back from analysing the World Baseball Classic to find some reason not to keep backing Venezuela at 10-1. As the squads take more shape, the Venezuela pitching looks a different class to anything else in the competition, and they have just won the Caribbean series for the first time in many years, so the team is in form, confident and unified. Obviously the Dominican Republic batting line-up will take some getting through, 3 times in the tournament if it pans out, but it is unlikely to be in any sort of form. The short pitch count in the early rounds is also likely to be in Venezuela's favour with the pitching depth available. The main concerns are that the tournament has basically been set up to guarantee the US gets into the final, and well-rested at that, and that the Venezuela semi-final is likely to be against the Dominican Republic, so Santana may be used then instead of the final. But even then the US is likely to treat it like an all-star game, the roster looks set up this way, and I'd still take Freddy Garcia or Carlos Zambrano in a one-off game against a team who I just can't see throwing themselves preseason around with their bosses watching, and, for nostalgia's sake possibly Clemens starting. I'm more than happy with the 10-1, looking forward to watching it, and if it pans out as I suspect, then it'll be a pretty substantial win.

England manager

2006-01-30T12:43:00.000-08:00

I have been telling people for over a year that the surprising yet so logical choice as next England manager is Trevor Brooking, and I think most people I've spoken to have come around to my thinking. Another foreign manager would be an unpopular and risky choice, there are no current English managers with the ability to do the job, Brooking has some experience, and it was successful experience, he has a huge passion, patriotism, commands the respect of senior players, has knowledge and friends within the FA, and has no ghosts lurking in the cupboard. With vast coaching resources available the job involves more of an ambassador and inspirational figurehead role and there are no better. I don't expect it will actually happen, that would be too sensible, but I got on at a big price when it finally emerged, and notice that it has since been heavily cut. In a more realistic vein I've also backed Martin O'Neill at 9-1, surely the next best alternative.

Keeping focus

2006-01-29T02:41:00.000-08:00

Having a bet is a good way to me of letting off a bit of steam. So the combination of a tiring time at work and the biggish win on Celebrity Big Brother let me in for a weekend of sloppy betting. Feeling tired doesn't allow a focus on events, and the online nature of betting whereby I have no plan to convert winnings into cash means stakes are virtualised and become simple units. I think I need to regain a focus, to make bets that have meaning and put some thought back into it. That's why I set this blog up I suppose, to rationalise my betting strategy. So, to get an edge and more meaning back into it, I'll set myself a challenge to double my holdings over the year, from a starting 2500 units to, obviously, 5000 units. I will also explore something practical and useful I can actually do with the winnings rather than reinvesting it, around next Christmas for about 1000 units.

African Nations - scorer nonsense

2006-01-21T10:15:00.000-08:00

Having spent time researching the event and finding a good price on a lesser known striker, the African Nations has taken a strange course. Dindane had to leave the tournament before it started with the death of his daughter, so I looked around for another unheralded talent, sure that some must be lurking ready to spring to prominence with loads of goals, and found Tunisia's Haykel Guemamedia at 50-1. What has unfolded so far has been terrible in that all the famed players have scored first goal, or 3, and placed themselves at the front of the leading scorer charts: so those with only half a clue about football would have probably picked Mido, Eto'o and Drogba as the only players they have heard of, and thought it was an easy game, in the way that once a year punters pick a runner or two in the Grand National because of the horse's name, jockey colours or whatever, clutter the bookies with bumbling cluelessness, and think they're God's gift if they get a lucky winner.

African Nations

2006-01-17T03:51:00.000-08:00

Part of what I like about exploring betting markets is finding new areas of information and interest. An interesting variance in the African Nations top scorer price alerted me to Aruna Dindane. While Drogba will be the obvious choice of an Ivory Coast player as the more famous player, I read a couple of match reports from the World Cup qualifiers and Dindane tore a couple of sides to shreds with pace, power and skill. A very regular scorer in the Belgian leagues, now playing at a higher level in France, I'll follow his progress in the tournament at 25-1.

Watching the price

2006-01-17T03:43:00.000-08:00

I realise that I need to get out more as a great pleasure for me is putting a bet on at a big price and watching the price come in as my selection excels. I've watched the 18-1 price on Chantelle for Big Brother shorten daily to a current 1-2. On occasion I "watch" a horse race on betfair, the ever-changing prices reflect the story of the race, though I was flummoxed on Saturday when my horse and one other had prices fluctuating slightly around evens while the others were 1000-1, which of course turned out to be a photo finish which ended in a deadheat.

A sports personality option

2006-01-11T01:17:00.000-08:00

I think there is an opportunity in the sports personality for an outsider to have greatness thrust upon them. While it will take an outstanding performance against the odds for a Briton to win Winbledon or a golf major, if England make substantial progress in the World Cup I suspect the winner will still come from the England squad. While Rooney is obviously the standout, recent progress in major competitions has generally involved at least one penalty shootout, and is likely to do so again, so what greater chance for a goalkeeper to become an instant national hero, the later the stage of the competition the better. And noticing a 50-1 price on offer for Paul Robinson (an automatic choice in goal, and of course, less chance of being injured than an outfield player) against the general 20 or 25s I think I've found a fair bet.

Butterfingers

2006-01-11T00:44:00.000-08:00

It's amazing how the smallest of incidents can affect the chances of a bet. I'd backed Andrew Symonds at 7-1 as man of the match in the 20-20 game with South Africa. He's probably the best player in the world at this format. For man of the match purposes a bowler very rarely gets it, a batsman usually doesn't get chance to make a substantial innings (at least 60 would generally be required for MOTM reckoning) and it is set up for a player like Symonds who can blast some quick runs, take a few wickets and field like a demon. All of which he duly did, scoring 50 and taking 2 wickets, clear MOTM potential, except that Graeme Smith dropped the simplest of chances when Damien Martyn was in the 40s, and he went on to make 90 odd and take the MOTM without dispute. All the careful study of the event panned out almost perfectly except for Smith dropping that catch which he would take 99 times out of 100.

Another non-running celebrity

2006-01-06T05:34:00.000-08:00

Having had another antepost non-runner in Lisa Tarbuck for Celebrity Big Brother should be disheartening but I'm pleased enough with the strategy. The 5-1 was too big a price not to take, it had already come in to 7/2, if she had been in I'm sure she would have instantly gone odds-on given the competition, but I was also sufficiently restrained not to put a lot on it. Looking at the odds I've backed Chantelle at 18-1 with 10 bookies giving between 17/2 and 10/1 it's a value price, and I've also ventured on "Any other" at 20-1, which is usually a fair price given the zero success rate of late entrants generally, but given this motley crew of "celebrities" I think a late entrant stands a better chance than usual.
I noticed some ice skating celebrity shenanigans are forthcoming, and having a quick browse it appears that 7-2 might not be a bad price for David Seaman previous winner of a similar competition, former ice hockey player, and I'm sure anyone who's worn a ponytail like his won't be shy of prancing about and posing in a silly costume.

Typical Aussies

2006-01-05T05:43:00.000-08:00

I remember a Test between Australia and India, in India, a few years back going into the final day when it was very evenly poised, one side needed about 150, the other to take 7 wickets, not sure of the details, but it was a game that could only finish in a win for either side, so the draw was 16-1. It proceeded to rain all day and not a ball was bowled. Obviously I don't know whether the weather came from nowhere or he forecast had been overlooked by the bookies. So, before committing money on a South African win at 4-1 going into the fourth day against Australia, I checked 2 local weather forecasts for Sydney which both suggested a clear day, maybe the occasional light drizzle. Satisfied with my research I put the bet on and settled back some hours later to watch rain storms in Sydney on a day when only 20 overs were bowled. The draw is now 1-14 and inevitable.

Latest celebrity rounds

2006-01-05T05:36:00.000-08:00

I've had a couple of ante-post blowouts recently and, while I'll always commit to an early price on a promising runner, as I've not got a run for my money a few times recently I've been cautious with my stake on Celebrity Big Brother as the final names are still to be announced, but Liza Tarbuck has winner written all over her and though second favourite I think 5-1 is still a price I would ordinarily invest a lot more in.

Not enough accounts

2006-01-02T01:28:00.000-08:00

I've got accounts with 14 different bookies now, but I need to extend that to one more. The Redskins won right at the end of a tight match which ruled Dallas out of the NFL playoffs about an hour before they kicked off against St Louis. The effect must have been totally disheartening and I checked out the prices on the game as Washington scored the decisive touchdown. 3 of the 4 bookies had adjusted prices accordingly but PremierBet still offered 6-1 Rams, which is an account I don't have. So, it is definitely worth acting quickly by interpreting contingent results before the bookies, and opening another account to cover all opportunities. The Rams won, of course.

Missed a bet

2005-12-31T11:14:00.000-08:00

I missed the 12-1 on an England cricketer taking 10 wickets in a Test in 2006 highlighted in the Racing Post. Being away from a pc for a week and finally getting (towed) home I found the price was now 11-2. I can't legislate for missed opportunities in those circumstances but I'll try and keep up my scanning for standout prices before they get spotted by others and publicised. Doing some of this rooting around I did notice that Blue Square were offering 4-1 on Rooney as sports personality as a yearly special rather than as a full market, which is a full point bigger than those pricing the personality event as a whole.

Consistent odds

2005-12-22T00:33:00.000-08:00

I won some more money on Flintoff as leading one-day series scorer. The situation may change with Pietersen's emergence, but I think Freddie is still England's consistently best one day batsman, yet the price never seems to change. He was 11-2 for the series. In a series against Bangladesh last year he top scored in 3 or 4 matches in a row, but again the price never changed. Pietersen may threaten his ability to remain top series scorer, but at the same time that will guarantee the price.
I am expecting also that the price won't change for the last 2 NFL games of the regular season on Tiki Barber as first touchdown scorer in Giants games. I've had him the last 2 weeks and he' s done the business. They're not a big play side and, while Shockey offers an opportunity on a short passing play, Barber is just as likely in that situation, as well as being the only realistic running play scorer, and he's in form. I got 6-1 last week but noticed that one bookie offered 5-1 with each way 1/4 first four, which is surely buying money.

Sports personality

2005-12-19T07:36:00.000-08:00

After a substantial success with this year's sports personality I had a look at next year's. Though it's a short price for an individual who could get injured, not perform, or not ingratiate themselves with the public, 3-1 seems a short price, but I can't see Rooney not winning it. In a World Cup year it will take something hugely spectacular in a different sport for it not to be an England footballer, and I seriously can't see Andrew Murray winning Wimbledon. With Beckham seemingly having lost a lot of his popular appeal, Rooney is the obvious choice particularly as he seems to have calmed down in recent months. Basically England rely on him for creativity and if he performs England will make at least the quarter finals, which should be sufficient to win the personality award, especially if he can throw in a couple of goals and performances on the way. Up till about May this year Ellen McArthur was odds-on with Hills and I suspect their price on Rooney is again a bit sleepy.

I had a dream

2005-12-14T13:57:00.000-08:00

I had a doze early this evening and dreamt I was at work watching the West Ham score on teletext, away against Leicester. We were one nil down, then I went back into the office, rechecked the final score and we had won 2-1. I woke up about 20 minutes before the Everton-West Ham game kicked off, and the image was still so clear, fair enough the team was wrong, but the shirt colour the same, that I felt that I had to have a bet on it. For all my efforts to be systematic, there must always be room to back a hunch, even if it comes in a semi-conscious blur (and especially at 12-1.). I'm still slightly amazed having then watched Everton take the lead and West Ham come back to win 2-1 (noting more methodically also that the team to score first has lost in four of the last five games I've watched.) Now I'll just wait for the dream that shows me the winning lottery numbers.

Persistency

2005-12-11T10:32:00.000-08:00

There are a couple of players I've backed for years because I thought they had the potential to win a major tournament, and their starting price for those tournaments was huge. In golf it was Chad Campbell, and, not being a keen golf follower, I was unaware of when the big tournaments were on and happened to miss backing his big win. In snooker, it's Ali Carter. I've got him for the World Championship at 100-1 and at the same price for the UK Championship which seems to be panning out quite nicely for him, though the same was true last year when he hit one of the most painful-to-watch losses of confidences I've ever seen and couldn't buy a pot having been one ball away from the semis. Hopefully this year will be different but if he doesn't win, I'm sure the 100-1 will be available on each tournament until he does win one. I backed a horse called Errol from it's first run, blind, on the basis that eventually a horse will find form, it's track, race or level and actually win one, and it took about 3 years but I finally recouped my money. The danger with this loyalty betting of course, is missing a bet on the one winning event, so I will make sure I back Ali till he wins one or retires, whichever comes soonest, and not pursue this method of betting again.

Novelty betting

2005-12-10T15:30:00.000-08:00

As I'd backed Villarreal to beat a weak Sociedad at less than 2-1 before the start, the 11/2 when Sociedad went 1-0 up after about 5 minutes was a big price. I was confident in Villarreal winning over 90 minutes, so for treble the price at the start it effectively meant winning by an extra goal, over 85 minutes rather than 90, which turned out easily achievable.
Nice bets like that one can keep me going, and allow me the odd bet simply for the novelty value. When I saw Paddy Power had a market for the number of sprouts sold in Tesco this Christmas I had to have a small bet. I have no expectation in winning, in fact I can't even remember what I bet on, the importance and the value to me is simply the ridiculous fact that I have got a bet on how many brussels will be sold at Tesco this Christmas. And I'm excited to see that Blue Square are broadcasting a live elf race on Monday lunchtime. I think part of my desire to bet on strange events is probably some anti-materialist statement. I'm sure people would be aghast that I spend money on such frivolities, but I know that in terms of enjoyment noone could get more fun from a few quid than I will cheering on a little bloke in a silly costume running round an obstacle course on Monday lunchtime.

Around the world

2005-12-08T00:46:00.000-08:00

I've noticed the Australian bookies Centrebet often have a big variance on prices from the British bookies, as well as offering markets on different events- the "Australian of the Year" looks to be an interesting betting proposition - strangely no cricketers in there this year, noone likes to see that. I got most of the way to opening an account with them but there was a problem with the deposit so I left it. Looking at bookies around the world for the Miss World competition there is a huge variance in prices, and I will look next year at opening up some overseas accounts for value in international competitions. It was obvious with the Ashes that the best prices on England were always with Centrebet - American and French racing is a slightly different story, as the tote/pm are generally available - but it will probably pay to look abroad for fixed odds prices, the football World Cup will certainly be a ripe market for national variance.

In running

2005-12-06T01:22:00.000-08:00

I've often watched an event with the laptop by my side showing the latest prices. Perhaps my heart was ruling my head a little but Birmingham were a side short on confidence, picked up 2 injuries early on, and West Ham had already looked easily capable of scoring, so when Birmingham scored in just the tenth minute the 9-1 about West Ham looked a huge overreaction, and so it proved. I will have a keener look in future, particularly in football matches where the scoring of an early goal seems to affect the prices out of proportion to the way the match is progressing generally. Of course the best prices in running, and generally, are on the exchanges, but this is just a hobby to me, and I don't want to be taking other people's money (or lining their pockets), the whole point to me is trying to beat the faceless bookies.

Right idea, wrong horse

2005-12-04T02:32:00.000-08:00

In looking at England's leading scorer for the Pakistan series, I looked for the most technically-correct player. There were doubts as to whether Bell would play, so I backed Strauss as second best. Of course, Bell played and was leading scorer. In Celebrity I correctly identified a posh, eccentric woman as a leading contender at a big price and picked the wrong one. Although it inevitably involves at least one losing bet, where there is a big field and the price is right I will try to cover a concept or profile of a winner rather than further limiting my chances by identifying an individual. Also, where I'm trying to follow a strategy, I need to cover it consistently: I placed "value" bets on each race at Wolverhampton last night, picking a runner whose price was substantially bigger with just one bookie. I backed these to the same amount except one, because I didn't have enough funds in that account so had a smaller bet...it was the only one which came in but at the biggest price, 25-1.

Early baseball

2005-11-29T22:04:00.000-08:00

The first baseball markets have come out and while it's too early for any real assessment of the MLB, the new "World classic" seems an interesting market. I've tried to research it a bit more but there is very little up-to-date information. USA and Dominican Republic are clear favourites as they hold most of the superstar sluggers. But there are a few other variables: the tournament comes pre-season when form, particularly for batters has not been established (I made money last year by simply backing the biggest price side in pre-season games as the bookies still side with the bigger club despite the lowkey nature of the games- I'll always take better than evens on a coin toss); it is unclear how many players will want to play, and how many owners will allow their players to play just before season start- the USA would seem to be worst affected by this, with Steinbrenner an unlikely supporter. I think the winner will be heavily MLB-player loaded which rules most other teams out, and though Canada look solid at a good price, Venezuela have a strong a side, without the heavyweight batting lineup, but should have the strongest pitching which may well prove crucial, and would appear to be taking the competition seriously and patriotically. Of course events may have occurred which weigh against them, and as a new tournament there's always huge unpredictability, but there's always a chance that the early price has just been placed too high and I'm willing to take a risk at 8-1.

Cricket again

2005-11-29T22:00:00.000-08:00

Of course I'd like nothing better than to see England win the last Test and square the series. But I've waited to convince myself they would before betting on it. Because of a low-looking first innings the price is now about right, just short of 3/1, and an early, 4.30, watching brief has shown that the pitch is not only bouncing just short of a length where England bowl, but the odd one is keeping low. With the way England have struggled batting last so far, I think anything over 300, given that England have to press for the win, will be sufficient.

All in

2005-11-27T05:11:00.000-08:00

One of the most important things I've done is to open multiple accounts, which lets me use an online odds checker and get the best price for events. This not only guarantees a better return price for winners but at least a value losing bet. When an account has run down to near the point of only being able to have dibbly bets I like the concept taken from poker of going "all in" where you put everything on one bet, albeit one which has a very good chance of coming off- if not, fair enough but better to go down in a blaze of glory. My first dalliance with this was on a baseball game, a very small affair between Kansas and Detroit where all the matchups seemed to be in favour of KC but the price was odds against so I went all in with 3 accounts. It was all plain sailing till the KC pitcher was thrown out, but they held on. Anyway, I went a big all in with Valencia at 4-6 last night and they won comfortably. Nice concept, nice result, nice buzz.

End of a bad week

2005-11-25T11:04:00.000-08:00

Broken just about every rule I'd tried to set myself this week: betting blindly on horses, betting on sides I support, trying to chase lost money. Not because I lost the plot, it was just circumstances. Anyway, I thought I'd finish by having a few quid on my teams: so had a large winning bet on Denver at Dallas (and they're now best price 10-1 against my 25s for the Superbowl though I can't see a way past Indianapolis unless Manning gets injured); with the news that Shane Bond (I rate him if fit as the best bowler in the world) has signed for next season I got straight on Gloucestershire at 14-1 (a big over-reaction to a poor season with genuine excuses and effectively no overseas player) - with each way 3 places I'll keep an eye out for a sleepy price when more bookies open the books; and Anton Ferdinand to be man of the match at 22s looks good given it's first game against big brother, with Sheringham as a saver, more emotional appeal - we just have to put up a performance, not even win or even draw the game. Back to systems tomorrow.

England cricket

2005-11-23T04:06:00.000-08:00

I'd backed England to win the series after they lost the first Test as I thought they were the stronger team and the odds were tempting (similar scenario to a nice bet on the Ashes). After the fourth day's play I notice Bet365 have England 7-2 to win the Second Test but still 14-1 for the series. If they do win this Test England will surely be no bigger than about 6/4 for the last Test, which would win them the series, so the 14-1 looks huge.

Telly bets

2005-11-17T07:43:00.000-08:00

I've had a couple of nice wins betting on the endless round of witless talent(less) / celebrity TV programmes and I thought I'd get in quick as odds for the Jungle came out. Sid Owen seems to match the criteria of most previous winners and I'm glad to see that the 4-1 I got has now gone. I think a posh, eccentric woman tends to do well also, and given the choice of Jilly Goolden and Carol Thatcher I plumped for the former each way at 16-1.
In terms of the other contests, my 3-1 on Shayne for the Xfactor is looking a reasonable investment so far. I felt I had to have a bet on Come Dancing after the easy money on Jill Halfpenny last year, but didn't get Sean Boyce's tip this year if there was one, and went blindly for Patsy Palmer. My hopes rest on dancing ability being totally ignored, a sort of Eliza Dolittle story, or some public connection with Ricky being in the Jungle. I need to research it a bit more next time.

Racing strategy day 1

2005-11-13T02:09:00.000-08:00

It's still early jump season and there weren't any horses matching my selection criteria, so I left it. I was helped in my abstinence by another strand of my strategy, in that I'd seen a convincing argument for Our Vic the week before last and got on at 8-1, so I had a watching interest and it cruised in at 9-2 (having been a lot shorter even than that, so I'd had the enjoyment of watching the price come in over the last week or so, as well as seeing the race.) I don't feel disappointed either at missing out on the England treble (football, rugby union and League (or 4-timer with the cricket)) as it's been sufficient pleasure watching it. I've happily ruled out backing teams I support as I always convince myself that they'll win (though I have had a largeish bet on England to win the football World Cup as I genuinely think they've got a real chance.)

An evening's entertainment

2005-11-11T00:57:00.000-08:00

Always on the lookout for new things to bet on and avenues to explore I ventured into the market for the Miss World competition. I thought that I might be able to create a useful profile based on previous winners. Unfortunately last year it became a world public vote for the first time so any previous patterns go out of the window. So instead I made a few basic criteria and started whittling down the contestants. Some hours later, having studied the biogs and photos of 102 beautiful women from around the world I had a shortlist, a very aesthetically pleasing way to spend an evening. Anyway, if any of Miss Dominican Republic, Costa Rica or Panama in ascending price order finish in the top 5 then I'll be in profit.

A sensible bet

2005-11-09T00:46:00.000-08:00

I think this bet will save me money even if it loses. I often watch an Italian game and, of course, have a few pounds blind on the result, and invariably lose. I see Gilardino is 16-1 to be leading scorer so, with that bet on I'll have an automatic interest in the Milan games to see him score, and in other games that other players, Toni, Adriano, Chiesa etc. don't score. The Betfair price, albeit a small, newly-reformed market was about 4-1 and he seems to be "on fire" at the moment, so I think it's money well spent.

World Cup leading goalscorer

2005-11-08T12:32:00.000-08:00

It took me quite a while to get a betting instinct for baseball, and my dabbles with American Football are not proving rewarding at the moment so I'll give it a skip for a while. The season is so short comparatively that it's not worth studying too seriously. Instead I had a look to the future and the world cup leading goalscorer prices. I noticed a big differential on Kaka, from 25 to 80-1, and on looking at it a bit more closely, it's certainly worth a go. To start, a value bet has to have a player from a team that'll go a long way, and Brazil look good to go all the way. In 1998 I had Davor Suker at 25-1 and was feeling pretty comfortable with his 3-goal lead going into the final, especially when Ronaldo was touch-and-go to play, and then didn't really play at all, but I nearly had a heart attack when Zidane scored two early headers and looked like scoring from any ball into the box. Anyway, Brazil are sure to score a lot this time and with Ronaldo not looking sharp, and Robinho and Ronaldinho not natural goalscorers, I think Kaka could be a good thing.

Villarreal

2005-11-06T01:06:00.000-08:00

An encouraging week for Villarreal. I've got them at big prices for La Liga and Champions League (along with Lyon). Barcelona look a different class but are way too short and are getting away with the sort of decisions Madrid did for years so I looked for an alternative and Villarreal looked backable. A good win in the CL in the week and League last night, but probably most encouraging was a last-minute equaliser at Athletico last week. So often the away side rolls over in Spain so any team that has the outstanding home form which Villarreal has, and the ability to battle and score away from home, looks value at the early season 66-1.

Horse racing strategy

2005-11-06T00:21:00.000-08:00

I've always felt a compulsion to bet on a race because I'm watching it. Last Boxing Day I sat through about 36 races at a couple of minutes interval and saw one winner from all 36, picked on the barest of form and knowledge. There are just too many variables to consider to back my own judgement consistently and rather than attempt to specialise, I'm going to try to stick to a threefold strategy:

1/ When a horse obviously stands out then back it - I saw Spectested finish like a train in a race last year and waited several months for it to run over a longer distance - and it duly cruised in, making up about 15 lengths in the last 2 furlongs. And I think Scottish Stage looks something special so I've backed it for the Oaks.

2/ There are tons of tipsters who are obliged to pick a horse in every race, but sometimes a tipster can come across really compellingly and impassioned. Occasionally, when I get the sense that a pundit really believes their selection can win, and can argue their case convincingly, then it's worth backing- on this basis I had my only winner in the Breeders Cup meeting, Shirocco.

3/ Simple methodology - armed with the Racing Post, check the trainers in form, check which ones have a good course record, and where the trainer has just one runner at a course, back it. Not complicated, but worth a try- yesterday 11/8 and 6/4 wins out of 3 selections.

Christmas odds

2005-11-05T04:18:00.000-08:00

I remember last year I spotted some strange odds around Christmas, Paddy Power I think, which gave the same odds for snow on Christmas day in Scotland as in England. As the other bookies showed a big difference in the odds, and shorter prices, I thought I'd get on the Scottish snow and it duly showed up...having a look at Christmas prices, the Kaiser Chiefs are 20-1 with one bookie to have the no 1 single, 100-1 with another. Even if it comes nowhere I won't feel cheated at having a few quid on that at a big price, with the thought that the discrepancy may be in my favour.

I'd hate to be a professional gambler as sport and life in general gets too serious. Betting creates an interest because it gives you a side to take, and angle to have on events and if I can spare a couple of pounds to brighten up an event by having a bet on it, I feel it's money well spent.

First Saturday

2005-11-05T02:22:00.000-08:00

I'm not fussy about what I bet on, but the best luck I've had is when I've been able to argue in favour of a bet from a number of angles. I'm just waiting for the payout on Freddie Flintoff for Sports Personality and what makes it best for me is not the money, though that'll sustain my gambling for some time to come, but the fact that I argued and explained it to a lot of people: the Ashes was the (only) major sporting event of the year and if England won (about 3-1 at the time) then a cricketer was a certainty, of whom Flintoff was a certainty, so the 16-1 was such an obvious and overpriced bet. The biggest worry was that his celebratory binge might put people off, but I'm sure most will forgive him that in the context. When he's picked the award up, maybe some people'll be thinking that I talk some sense some times.

So, I thought, in a constant effort to improve my betting, if I try and write up some of my bets and betting thoughts then I'll have to make sense of them to myself first, and hopefully not keep making the same mistakes, or keep doing the right things.