Horse racing strategy

I've always felt a compulsion to bet on a race because I'm watching it. Last Boxing Day I sat through about 36 races at a couple of minutes interval and saw one winner from all 36, picked on the barest of form and knowledge. There are just too many variables to consider to back my own judgement consistently and rather than attempt to specialise, I'm going to try to stick to a threefold strategy:

1/ When a horse obviously stands out then back it - I saw Spectested finish like a train in a race last year and waited several months for it to run over a longer distance - and it duly cruised in, making up about 15 lengths in the last 2 furlongs. And I think Scottish Stage looks something special so I've backed it for the Oaks.

2/ There are tons of tipsters who are obliged to pick a horse in every race, but sometimes a tipster can come across really compellingly and impassioned. Occasionally, when I get the sense that a pundit really believes their selection can win, and can argue their case convincingly, then it's worth backing- on this basis I had my only winner in the Breeders Cup meeting, Shirocco.

3/ Simple methodology - armed with the Racing Post, check the trainers in form, check which ones have a good course record, and where the trainer has just one runner at a course, back it. Not complicated, but worth a try- yesterday 11/8 and 6/4 wins out of 3 selections.