MLB pre-season

Last year I backed the Twins at 9/2 at the start of the season, but was able to back them again during a poor run during the season at 40-1. It is such a long season that the prices available now are likely to be higher at some point after April. So the main thing now is to take a long-term view as to the strengths of the teams and either back against win-makeups available, or look for the value during the season. In that light I've had some money on the Brewers who have a nice rotation, offensive potential and a good vibe and are far too big at 9-1 behind the Cubs who have spent money but provide little evidence it will all fit together, and Cardinals who may be defending the WS but have a starting rotation from the bullpen and I'll take on any side with Kip Wells as no 2 starter. To a lesser extent 6-1 about the Rangers in a 4-horse race where the Angels have no offence, Oakland's ability to rebuild and challenge simultaneously is challenged again, and Seattle seems to be directionless, is a price that might disappear rapidly. Where that doesn't apply is where the bookies have something totally overpriced and after a decent start the price just won't be matched again, particularly for the World Series or Home Run market. To back the Pirates for the World Series may seem like lunacy, but with as string a (heavily-lefty) rotation like they have, 200-1 was too big a temptation for me. With LaRoche to supplement Bay and Sanchez the offence is upgraded, and the clincher for me was the possibility of Eldred playing the outfield, which would give the offence another big bat, not the strongest of lineups, but then the Yankees and Box do, and Detroit don't so where does that get you? In terms of home runs, Soriano should be close in his new environs, but at a bigger price (80-1) I've taken Bill Hall to continue an upward power progression, and at a massive 150-1 Prince Fielder, a potential future homerun champ, to deliver a little early.

A perfect bet

To me, the perfect bet: is based on method rather than selection so that no thought needs to be placed, "blind" in other words; it is rewarding in terms of watching the event unfold, and it in fact enhances an event; it is a value bet and inherently profitable.
I might have found it. For a few months I've been betting blind on Hills' "match action" on live televised football games, backing over 100 points. With 10 points a goal, sending off and penalty, and 3 points a corner or yellow card, it brightens up games in which I have no obvious interest, saving me from backing a side I don't like at the biggest price, and staying clear of a big loser in the first goalscorer markets.
I've looked at the stats from about 4 months and am showing a 30 times profit to a level stake. If this is restricted to just league games (english and spanish) then this roughly doubles as cup games have only made the 100+ point mark a couple of times. Most successes come in games where both sides are committed to going forward and the game is quite close - in unevenly-matched games even when the better side scores a lot of goals early they tend to ease off and not score "points", but then to discriminate between the merits of different matches and to start looking at the price, which varies, but not markedly, would be to lose the systematic appeal of the bet.