Thursday, March 23, 2006

Whoever he is

Browsing novelty markets I noticed some huge differentials in the prices offered, across 3 bookies for the Nobel Peace Prize. Paddy Power seem to be patriotically favouring Geldof and Bono, but showed some interestingly large prices. With the other two showing 7 and 8-1, they had someone called Thich Quang Do at 50-1. A quick lookup informed me that he is a Vietnamese buddhist and I got on quick, as I don't remember seeing such a vast price variance between bookies for a long time. I also took the 33-1 on Jeff Halper, against the 6 and 10-1 also available. I'm intrigued now about the price-change triggers bookies build in. The small bet I put on Do was sufficient to instantly bring the price in to 33-1 (the time I placed the bet and the off-the-wall nature of the market convince me that my stake was sufficient to cause this), while a larger potential return (though I hit a low maximum stake) with Sporting Bet on Walcott to score first England goal at Wembley wasn't enough to alter the 80-1. (Recent experience shows that SkyBet are another to react almost instantly to any bet at a big price.) The lesson I suppose I learn from this is to look out for interesting markets where value is gained from bookies taking very different views, to research it quickly, and to make the first bet sizeable as it is likely to be the only bet taken at that price.

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