Right idea, wrong horse

In looking at England's leading scorer for the Pakistan series, I looked for the most technically-correct player. There were doubts as to whether Bell would play, so I backed Strauss as second best. Of course, Bell played and was leading scorer. In Celebrity I correctly identified a posh, eccentric woman as a leading contender at a big price and picked the wrong one. Although it inevitably involves at least one losing bet, where there is a big field and the price is right I will try to cover a concept or profile of a winner rather than further limiting my chances by identifying an individual. Also, where I'm trying to follow a strategy, I need to cover it consistently: I placed "value" bets on each race at Wolverhampton last night, picking a runner whose price was substantially bigger with just one bookie. I backed these to the same amount except one, because I didn't have enough funds in that account so had a smaller bet...it was the only one which came in but at the biggest price, 25-1.