Missed a bet

I missed the 12-1 on an England cricketer taking 10 wickets in a Test in 2006 highlighted in the Racing Post. Being away from a pc for a week and finally getting (towed) home I found the price was now 11-2. I can't legislate for missed opportunities in those circumstances but I'll try and keep up my scanning for standout prices before they get spotted by others and publicised. Doing some of this rooting around I did notice that Blue Square were offering 4-1 on Rooney as sports personality as a yearly special rather than as a full market, which is a full point bigger than those pricing the personality event as a whole.

Consistent odds

I won some more money on Flintoff as leading one-day series scorer. The situation may change with Pietersen's emergence, but I think Freddie is still England's consistently best one day batsman, yet the price never seems to change. He was 11-2 for the series. In a series against Bangladesh last year he top scored in 3 or 4 matches in a row, but again the price never changed. Pietersen may threaten his ability to remain top series scorer, but at the same time that will guarantee the price.
I am expecting also that the price won't change for the last 2 NFL games of the regular season on Tiki Barber as first touchdown scorer in Giants games. I've had him the last 2 weeks and he' s done the business. They're not a big play side and, while Shockey offers an opportunity on a short passing play, Barber is just as likely in that situation, as well as being the only realistic running play scorer, and he's in form. I got 6-1 last week but noticed that one bookie offered 5-1 with each way 1/4 first four, which is surely buying money.

Sports personality

After a substantial success with this year's sports personality I had a look at next year's. Though it's a short price for an individual who could get injured, not perform, or not ingratiate themselves with the public, 3-1 seems a short price, but I can't see Rooney not winning it. In a World Cup year it will take something hugely spectacular in a different sport for it not to be an England footballer, and I seriously can't see Andrew Murray winning Wimbledon. With Beckham seemingly having lost a lot of his popular appeal, Rooney is the obvious choice particularly as he seems to have calmed down in recent months. Basically England rely on him for creativity and if he performs England will make at least the quarter finals, which should be sufficient to win the personality award, especially if he can throw in a couple of goals and performances on the way. Up till about May this year Ellen McArthur was odds-on with Hills and I suspect their price on Rooney is again a bit sleepy.

I had a dream

I had a doze early this evening and dreamt I was at work watching the West Ham score on teletext, away against Leicester. We were one nil down, then I went back into the office, rechecked the final score and we had won 2-1. I woke up about 20 minutes before the Everton-West Ham game kicked off, and the image was still so clear, fair enough the team was wrong, but the shirt colour the same, that I felt that I had to have a bet on it. For all my efforts to be systematic, there must always be room to back a hunch, even if it comes in a semi-conscious blur (and especially at 12-1.). I'm still slightly amazed having then watched Everton take the lead and West Ham come back to win 2-1 (noting more methodically also that the team to score first has lost in four of the last five games I've watched.) Now I'll just wait for the dream that shows me the winning lottery numbers.

Persistency

There are a couple of players I've backed for years because I thought they had the potential to win a major tournament, and their starting price for those tournaments was huge. In golf it was Chad Campbell, and, not being a keen golf follower, I was unaware of when the big tournaments were on and happened to miss backing his big win. In snooker, it's Ali Carter. I've got him for the World Championship at 100-1 and at the same price for the UK Championship which seems to be panning out quite nicely for him, though the same was true last year when he hit one of the most painful-to-watch losses of confidences I've ever seen and couldn't buy a pot having been one ball away from the semis. Hopefully this year will be different but if he doesn't win, I'm sure the 100-1 will be available on each tournament until he does win one. I backed a horse called Errol from it's first run, blind, on the basis that eventually a horse will find form, it's track, race or level and actually win one, and it took about 3 years but I finally recouped my money. The danger with this loyalty betting of course, is missing a bet on the one winning event, so I will make sure I back Ali till he wins one or retires, whichever comes soonest, and not pursue this method of betting again.

Novelty betting

As I'd backed Villarreal to beat a weak Sociedad at less than 2-1 before the start, the 11/2 when Sociedad went 1-0 up after about 5 minutes was a big price. I was confident in Villarreal winning over 90 minutes, so for treble the price at the start it effectively meant winning by an extra goal, over 85 minutes rather than 90, which turned out easily achievable.
Nice bets like that one can keep me going, and allow me the odd bet simply for the novelty value. When I saw Paddy Power had a market for the number of sprouts sold in Tesco this Christmas I had to have a small bet. I have no expectation in winning, in fact I can't even remember what I bet on, the importance and the value to me is simply the ridiculous fact that I have got a bet on how many brussels will be sold at Tesco this Christmas. And I'm excited to see that Blue Square are broadcasting a live elf race on Monday lunchtime. I think part of my desire to bet on strange events is probably some anti-materialist statement. I'm sure people would be aghast that I spend money on such frivolities, but I know that in terms of enjoyment noone could get more fun from a few quid than I will cheering on a little bloke in a silly costume running round an obstacle course on Monday lunchtime.

Around the world

I've noticed the Australian bookies Centrebet often have a big variance on prices from the British bookies, as well as offering markets on different events- the "Australian of the Year" looks to be an interesting betting proposition - strangely no cricketers in there this year, noone likes to see that. I got most of the way to opening an account with them but there was a problem with the deposit so I left it. Looking at bookies around the world for the Miss World competition there is a huge variance in prices, and I will look next year at opening up some overseas accounts for value in international competitions. It was obvious with the Ashes that the best prices on England were always with Centrebet - American and French racing is a slightly different story, as the tote/pm are generally available - but it will probably pay to look abroad for fixed odds prices, the football World Cup will certainly be a ripe market for national variance.

In running

I've often watched an event with the laptop by my side showing the latest prices. Perhaps my heart was ruling my head a little but Birmingham were a side short on confidence, picked up 2 injuries early on, and West Ham had already looked easily capable of scoring, so when Birmingham scored in just the tenth minute the 9-1 about West Ham looked a huge overreaction, and so it proved. I will have a keener look in future, particularly in football matches where the scoring of an early goal seems to affect the prices out of proportion to the way the match is progressing generally. Of course the best prices in running, and generally, are on the exchanges, but this is just a hobby to me, and I don't want to be taking other people's money (or lining their pockets), the whole point to me is trying to beat the faceless bookies.

Right idea, wrong horse

In looking at England's leading scorer for the Pakistan series, I looked for the most technically-correct player. There were doubts as to whether Bell would play, so I backed Strauss as second best. Of course, Bell played and was leading scorer. In Celebrity I correctly identified a posh, eccentric woman as a leading contender at a big price and picked the wrong one. Although it inevitably involves at least one losing bet, where there is a big field and the price is right I will try to cover a concept or profile of a winner rather than further limiting my chances by identifying an individual. Also, where I'm trying to follow a strategy, I need to cover it consistently: I placed "value" bets on each race at Wolverhampton last night, picking a runner whose price was substantially bigger with just one bookie. I backed these to the same amount except one, because I didn't have enough funds in that account so had a smaller bet...it was the only one which came in but at the biggest price, 25-1.