Whoever he is

Browsing novelty markets I noticed some huge differentials in the prices offered, across 3 bookies for the Nobel Peace Prize. Paddy Power seem to be patriotically favouring Geldof and Bono, but showed some interestingly large prices. With the other two showing 7 and 8-1, they had someone called Thich Quang Do at 50-1. A quick lookup informed me that he is a Vietnamese buddhist and I got on quick, as I don't remember seeing such a vast price variance between bookies for a long time. I also took the 33-1 on Jeff Halper, against the 6 and 10-1 also available. I'm intrigued now about the price-change triggers bookies build in. The small bet I put on Do was sufficient to instantly bring the price in to 33-1 (the time I placed the bet and the off-the-wall nature of the market convince me that my stake was sufficient to cause this), while a larger potential return (though I hit a low maximum stake) with Sporting Bet on Walcott to score first England goal at Wembley wasn't enough to alter the 80-1. (Recent experience shows that SkyBet are another to react almost instantly to any bet at a big price.) The lesson I suppose I learn from this is to look out for interesting markets where value is gained from bookies taking very different views, to research it quickly, and to make the first bet sizeable as it is likely to be the only bet taken at that price.

Planning disasters

The New Year car breakdown which caused me to miss a bet on an England bowler to take 10 wickets in a Test also lost me a chance to cash in on the near-certainty that Wembley wouldn't be ready for the Cup Final. As more problems shake the new stadium I cast around for a way to take advantage and had a look at the market for first England scorer in the new stadium. Though not able to break into Arsenal's first team, Theo Walcott has been mentioned for the World Cup squad and it seems only a matter of time, which may be precipitated by the World Cup fallout and a new manager, before he makes the squad at least. The longer the building takes, the more chance Walcott will figure in the first squad to play there, and if he does, he will be about a tenth the 80-1 currently on offer to be the first England scorer.

Learning from experience

My new view on snooker events having been a success with Lee in the Welsh Open, I'll now have a look at future tournaments with more scrutiny. I based that on the fact that with a couple of defeats for leading players, one half of the draw opened up for a player in form. With the draw made for the whole event there appears to be much scope for analysing snooker events on this basis, and the odds often seem more reflective of a player's record or ability than the draw itself. The top half of the World Championship looks wide open. Murphy looks too error-prone, I can't say I rate Doherty, and Maguire has been awful this season. Barry Hawkins has already beaten a quality player, Junhui, in qualifying, is in form, and is on the up, and 40-1 looks a good price. I will keep an eye on it, and should he fall early, will still look to an each way price from that half of the draw.

Moving on slowly

I think I'm just about over the disappointment of the baseball, but I can only reflect on what a good bet I had on. Venezuela were one hit away from beating Dominican Republic and would now have been strong favourites. Not only that, but my other thoughts and predictions were spot on: I now have a good each way price on Japan, and the US indeed treated it like an allstar game and were light on starting pitching.
I did suffer a little from making more conservative bets than usual on Cheltenham during which I made proper study of available form and advice, generally during the middle of the night as I'd got into strange sleeping patterns to be able to watch the baseball, and made a healthy profit on each day. I will remember to do my homework and invest more substantially for big horse racing events as I have a very good record in those quality events where the form stands up.

Need to get out more

I placed a bet with 365 on an outsider at Cheltenham and, as the oddschecker page refreshed a minute later, it showed the price had moved in from 28 to 22-1. I'm sure this was down to lots of other bets over a longer period of time, but the seemingly instant price cut could, in the mind of someone who needs to get out more, been in reaction to my bet. Such is my life.

Back to reality

Back to normal expectations now as Venezuela go out. The frustration of the defeat is enormous given the circumstances and having called it almost perfectly. They had to beat Dominincan Republic at some stage and lost 2-1 on a passed ball. The vaunted DR offence was shut down, one hit between Tejada, Ortiz, Pujols and Beltre as anticipated. But Venezuela, against an inferior pitching side managed just one hit. One hit. Even the tiniest amount of offence would have brought a win and to be beaten by an error just heightens the wrongness of it all. But I must admit I am perfectly happy with how I predicted it all. Firstly, that Canada looked solid - they beat US- that Japan were a good each way price- they would have been in the semis already but for a dodgy call and may still end up winning it- and of course that Venezuela should have won the whole thing. Their MLB batting stars will be glad it is pre- and not post-season so they can go and join their clubs rather than have to go back to Venezuela. I doubt they will get much of a reception even at the end of the year. This result was little more than a disgrace.

All things considered

Venezuela are still hanging on by a thread to a chance of winning the WBC though now is hopefully the time that the pitching depth comes to the fore. Should they win tonight it will be the anticipated showdown with the Dominican Republic, but for a semi-final, not final place. With Garcia against presumably Perez I'd like the match-up, and then with Santana to go again in the semi it all rests on Zambrano tonight against an impassioned Puerto Rico. But it would all have been plain sailing aside from an important factor I overlooked: the manager. Aside from pitching to Ortiz at one down in the 9th with first base open, Sojo has made 3 more glaring errors: insisting on playing Cabrera out of position at 3rd lost him Mora and his vital offence; pulling Santana after 5 against Cuba 13 short of his pitch count when he put him back just 7 short in the effectively meaningless first round game, also showing ignorance of the momentum Cuba had gained when Venezuela couldn't score with bases loaded and none out; losing the momentum gained from winning the Caribbean series - the players look leaden and pressurised and the offence just hasn't got going - totally opposite to how they were a month ago. I still have a slight hope but I'm glad to have had a serious bet on it anyway, I've thought so much about it over a long period of time and you have to put your money where your mouth is. It's also nice to have the chance of a big payout from time to time.

An eye for detail

Browsing the Spring Training games I noticed that William Hill's coupon showed Seattle having 2 games, not unusual of course to play split-squad games, but it was strange that they were odds-on against the Dodgers, so I thought I'd explore more to see, particularly with pitching injuries, who was getting on the bus and who staying to play LA, before I piled into the Dodgers. It turned out to be a mistype on the web site, and should have been St Louis, not Seattle. I notified WH, they made the correction, and gave me a goodwill few quid in my account, details of which of course I had included in my Email. Sadly obsessional about detail I might be, but it's nice to be appreciated.

MLB season bets

Most of the transactions have been completed for the upcoming season and as the first Classic and Spring Training games have started I felt it time to make some divisional bets. I would never back against the Yankees, and wouldn't back them for the division at long odds-on; St Louis look no value against a potentially-stronger Cubs; and while the Mets' huge investments should give them every chance experience shows you could never back against the Braves. So, left with only 3 divisions to analyse. The perennially disappointing Giants are favourites for the NLW, which means there must be value available, and I think the Dodgers represent it at 2-1. I think the pitching looks a lot stronger than last year, Gagne should be back healthy, and there looks to be enough offence. I think the White Sox are in for a fall after winning so many close games last year, and while Cleveland looked the team in the ascendancy, I think that momentum cannot carry them all the way past a shaky rotation. Instead I've gone for the Twins, the rotation looks good, and it will need everyone to contribute offensively, but at 11/2 they're worth a shot. Also, for the rotation and speed, rather than offensive explosiveness, I think the Angels are the most solid bet for the ALW. I also think, after years of frustrations against them, it's better to get Johan Santana and the LAA bullpen on my side.

Laying bets to retain sanity

I've never been keen on laying bets on the basis that I only put bets on that I can afford, that the pleasure comes in watching how my selection performs, and that laying guarantees at least one losing bet. This afternoon has proved that there are situations when laying might be essential for mental well-being. I backed Stephen Lee at 40-1 for the Welsh Open when his half of the draw opened up and I remembered seeing him in some form recently - the Malta Open I think, and with half the odds a place I've watched his semi-final this afternoon with some interest. At 5-3 up in a first to 6 I could have backed Hamilton at 6-1 and guaranteed a nice return and no anxiety, but instead suffered huge mental torment as, somewhat inevitably Hamilton fought back to force a final frame, which I am now watching with my nerves in tatters. But then, I suppose that's what betting, and particularly thoughtful betting, is all about, that I've experienced huge emotional highs and lows over 5 hours of what has for an impartial observer, been a rather scrappy and error-strewn match. Writing this blog entry has helped to calm my nerves, and as I finish it, Lee has just won. A cigarette and a sit down in a darkened room are in order.

Home advantage

I think even in a sport such as snooker where the crowd is not particularly vociferous, there is still something to be said for home advantage, particularly in a patriotic country such as Wales, so I decided to pick out a Welsh player for the Welsh Open. While Stevens and Williams have the obvious proven records, I don't regard them as being on an upward curve, and while Dominic Dale has showed some recent form, he still looked short of the class and consistency required to win a tournament, so I took a plunge on Ryan Day at 100-1, who has from memory shown some glimpses of potential. If he makes a good show, I'll look more seriously at "home" advantage in non-team sports played internationally, golf and tennis being the immediately obvious avenues.