Early baseball

The first baseball markets have come out and while it's too early for any real assessment of the MLB, the new "World classic" seems an interesting market. I've tried to research it a bit more but there is very little up-to-date information. USA and Dominican Republic are clear favourites as they hold most of the superstar sluggers. But there are a few other variables: the tournament comes pre-season when form, particularly for batters has not been established (I made money last year by simply backing the biggest price side in pre-season games as the bookies still side with the bigger club despite the lowkey nature of the games- I'll always take better than evens on a coin toss); it is unclear how many players will want to play, and how many owners will allow their players to play just before season start- the USA would seem to be worst affected by this, with Steinbrenner an unlikely supporter. I think the winner will be heavily MLB-player loaded which rules most other teams out, and though Canada look solid at a good price, Venezuela have a strong a side, without the heavyweight batting lineup, but should have the strongest pitching which may well prove crucial, and would appear to be taking the competition seriously and patriotically. Of course events may have occurred which weigh against them, and as a new tournament there's always huge unpredictability, but there's always a chance that the early price has just been placed too high and I'm willing to take a risk at 8-1.

Cricket again

Of course I'd like nothing better than to see England win the last Test and square the series. But I've waited to convince myself they would before betting on it. Because of a low-looking first innings the price is now about right, just short of 3/1, and an early, 4.30, watching brief has shown that the pitch is not only bouncing just short of a length where England bowl, but the odd one is keeping low. With the way England have struggled batting last so far, I think anything over 300, given that England have to press for the win, will be sufficient.

All in

One of the most important things I've done is to open multiple accounts, which lets me use an online odds checker and get the best price for events. This not only guarantees a better return price for winners but at least a value losing bet. When an account has run down to near the point of only being able to have dibbly bets I like the concept taken from poker of going "all in" where you put everything on one bet, albeit one which has a very good chance of coming off- if not, fair enough but better to go down in a blaze of glory. My first dalliance with this was on a baseball game, a very small affair between Kansas and Detroit where all the matchups seemed to be in favour of KC but the price was odds against so I went all in with 3 accounts. It was all plain sailing till the KC pitcher was thrown out, but they held on. Anyway, I went a big all in with Valencia at 4-6 last night and they won comfortably. Nice concept, nice result, nice buzz.

End of a bad week

Broken just about every rule I'd tried to set myself this week: betting blindly on horses, betting on sides I support, trying to chase lost money. Not because I lost the plot, it was just circumstances. Anyway, I thought I'd finish by having a few quid on my teams: so had a large winning bet on Denver at Dallas (and they're now best price 10-1 against my 25s for the Superbowl though I can't see a way past Indianapolis unless Manning gets injured); with the news that Shane Bond (I rate him if fit as the best bowler in the world) has signed for next season I got straight on Gloucestershire at 14-1 (a big over-reaction to a poor season with genuine excuses and effectively no overseas player) - with each way 3 places I'll keep an eye out for a sleepy price when more bookies open the books; and Anton Ferdinand to be man of the match at 22s looks good given it's first game against big brother, with Sheringham as a saver, more emotional appeal - we just have to put up a performance, not even win or even draw the game. Back to systems tomorrow.

England cricket

I'd backed England to win the series after they lost the first Test as I thought they were the stronger team and the odds were tempting (similar scenario to a nice bet on the Ashes). After the fourth day's play I notice Bet365 have England 7-2 to win the Second Test but still 14-1 for the series. If they do win this Test England will surely be no bigger than about 6/4 for the last Test, which would win them the series, so the 14-1 looks huge.

Telly bets

I've had a couple of nice wins betting on the endless round of witless talent(less) / celebrity TV programmes and I thought I'd get in quick as odds for the Jungle came out. Sid Owen seems to match the criteria of most previous winners and I'm glad to see that the 4-1 I got has now gone. I think a posh, eccentric woman tends to do well also, and given the choice of Jilly Goolden and Carol Thatcher I plumped for the former each way at 16-1.
In terms of the other contests, my 3-1 on Shayne for the Xfactor is looking a reasonable investment so far. I felt I had to have a bet on Come Dancing after the easy money on Jill Halfpenny last year, but didn't get Sean Boyce's tip this year if there was one, and went blindly for Patsy Palmer. My hopes rest on dancing ability being totally ignored, a sort of Eliza Dolittle story, or some public connection with Ricky being in the Jungle. I need to research it a bit more next time.

Racing strategy day 1

It's still early jump season and there weren't any horses matching my selection criteria, so I left it. I was helped in my abstinence by another strand of my strategy, in that I'd seen a convincing argument for Our Vic the week before last and got on at 8-1, so I had a watching interest and it cruised in at 9-2 (having been a lot shorter even than that, so I'd had the enjoyment of watching the price come in over the last week or so, as well as seeing the race.) I don't feel disappointed either at missing out on the England treble (football, rugby union and League (or 4-timer with the cricket)) as it's been sufficient pleasure watching it. I've happily ruled out backing teams I support as I always convince myself that they'll win (though I have had a largeish bet on England to win the football World Cup as I genuinely think they've got a real chance.)

An evening's entertainment

Always on the lookout for new things to bet on and avenues to explore I ventured into the market for the Miss World competition. I thought that I might be able to create a useful profile based on previous winners. Unfortunately last year it became a world public vote for the first time so any previous patterns go out of the window. So instead I made a few basic criteria and started whittling down the contestants. Some hours later, having studied the biogs and photos of 102 beautiful women from around the world I had a shortlist, a very aesthetically pleasing way to spend an evening. Anyway, if any of Miss Dominican Republic, Costa Rica or Panama in ascending price order finish in the top 5 then I'll be in profit.

A sensible bet

I think this bet will save me money even if it loses. I often watch an Italian game and, of course, have a few pounds blind on the result, and invariably lose. I see Gilardino is 16-1 to be leading scorer so, with that bet on I'll have an automatic interest in the Milan games to see him score, and in other games that other players, Toni, Adriano, Chiesa etc. don't score. The Betfair price, albeit a small, newly-reformed market was about 4-1 and he seems to be "on fire" at the moment, so I think it's money well spent.

World Cup leading goalscorer

It took me quite a while to get a betting instinct for baseball, and my dabbles with American Football are not proving rewarding at the moment so I'll give it a skip for a while. The season is so short comparatively that it's not worth studying too seriously. Instead I had a look to the future and the world cup leading goalscorer prices. I noticed a big differential on Kaka, from 25 to 80-1, and on looking at it a bit more closely, it's certainly worth a go. To start, a value bet has to have a player from a team that'll go a long way, and Brazil look good to go all the way. In 1998 I had Davor Suker at 25-1 and was feeling pretty comfortable with his 3-goal lead going into the final, especially when Ronaldo was touch-and-go to play, and then didn't really play at all, but I nearly had a heart attack when Zidane scored two early headers and looked like scoring from any ball into the box. Anyway, Brazil are sure to score a lot this time and with Ronaldo not looking sharp, and Robinho and Ronaldinho not natural goalscorers, I think Kaka could be a good thing.

Villarreal

An encouraging week for Villarreal. I've got them at big prices for La Liga and Champions League (along with Lyon). Barcelona look a different class but are way too short and are getting away with the sort of decisions Madrid did for years so I looked for an alternative and Villarreal looked backable. A good win in the CL in the week and League last night, but probably most encouraging was a last-minute equaliser at Athletico last week. So often the away side rolls over in Spain so any team that has the outstanding home form which Villarreal has, and the ability to battle and score away from home, looks value at the early season 66-1.

Horse racing strategy

I've always felt a compulsion to bet on a race because I'm watching it. Last Boxing Day I sat through about 36 races at a couple of minutes interval and saw one winner from all 36, picked on the barest of form and knowledge. There are just too many variables to consider to back my own judgement consistently and rather than attempt to specialise, I'm going to try to stick to a threefold strategy:

1/ When a horse obviously stands out then back it - I saw Spectested finish like a train in a race last year and waited several months for it to run over a longer distance - and it duly cruised in, making up about 15 lengths in the last 2 furlongs. And I think Scottish Stage looks something special so I've backed it for the Oaks.

2/ There are tons of tipsters who are obliged to pick a horse in every race, but sometimes a tipster can come across really compellingly and impassioned. Occasionally, when I get the sense that a pundit really believes their selection can win, and can argue their case convincingly, then it's worth backing- on this basis I had my only winner in the Breeders Cup meeting, Shirocco.

3/ Simple methodology - armed with the Racing Post, check the trainers in form, check which ones have a good course record, and where the trainer has just one runner at a course, back it. Not complicated, but worth a try- yesterday 11/8 and 6/4 wins out of 3 selections.

Christmas odds

I remember last year I spotted some strange odds around Christmas, Paddy Power I think, which gave the same odds for snow on Christmas day in Scotland as in England. As the other bookies showed a big difference in the odds, and shorter prices, I thought I'd get on the Scottish snow and it duly showed up...having a look at Christmas prices, the Kaiser Chiefs are 20-1 with one bookie to have the no 1 single, 100-1 with another. Even if it comes nowhere I won't feel cheated at having a few quid on that at a big price, with the thought that the discrepancy may be in my favour.

I'd hate to be a professional gambler as sport and life in general gets too serious. Betting creates an interest because it gives you a side to take, and angle to have on events and if I can spare a couple of pounds to brighten up an event by having a bet on it, I feel it's money well spent.

First Saturday

I'm not fussy about what I bet on, but the best luck I've had is when I've been able to argue in favour of a bet from a number of angles. I'm just waiting for the payout on Freddie Flintoff for Sports Personality and what makes it best for me is not the money, though that'll sustain my gambling for some time to come, but the fact that I argued and explained it to a lot of people: the Ashes was the (only) major sporting event of the year and if England won (about 3-1 at the time) then a cricketer was a certainty, of whom Flintoff was a certainty, so the 16-1 was such an obvious and overpriced bet. The biggest worry was that his celebratory binge might put people off, but I'm sure most will forgive him that in the context. When he's picked the award up, maybe some people'll be thinking that I talk some sense some times.

So, I thought, in a constant effort to improve my betting, if I try and write up some of my bets and betting thoughts then I'll have to make sense of them to myself first, and hopefully not keep making the same mistakes, or keep doing the right things.