Lazy bookies

I notice that William Hill have finally woken up to the fact that 10-1 was a huge price for Venezuela to win the World Baseball Classic and cut the price to 7-1, more in line with other bookies. This is good news for me as the price was just too tempting and of course there are no certainties in sport and I was in danger of putting too many eggs in my Venezuelan basket. Price sleepiness is one thing, but not keeping up with results is another. BetDirect often offer strange prices on "special" bets, often standout ones, but 2 nights after the most recent eviction on "Just the two of us", they are still offering less than 4-1 on Matt Allwright (whoever he may be) to win the competition he was eliminated from 48 hours ago. On the presumption that there must correspondingly be value available I backed Nicky Campbell at 16-1, about double the price on offer elsewhere, and, having watched the programme for a couple of minutes last week and seeing he came top of the judges votes at least I know he has some ability, unlike some of my previous wagers on such events, the leaden-footed Patsy Palmer springing to mind.

Ice hockey, as if I know anything about it

I have next to no knowledge of ice hockey, but I was intrigued by the markets for the NHL. I like to have plenty and a variety of things to keep an eye on though, and if it turns out to be a decent bet then all the better. I noticed that 3 of 4 bookies have Ottawa as clear favourites for the NHL, with Stan James best price 9-2 and offering half the odds top 2 which seems a good bet to guarantee involvement to the later stages. They also make Dallas joint favourites at the same price, while others rank them 5th or 6th best at prices up to 14-1. So someone's clearly got it wrong and at small stakes I've taken both best prices and now have an additional sporting interest.

England bowling bet

The market for England's leading wicket-taker in India is fairly open and there are are a few factors to take into consideration. The England pace attack is clearly unsuited to the conditions and the pitches. With the quartet quoted between about 3-1 and 9-2 and little to pick between them there is no obvious value bet. But the slow bowlers are likely to be just as innocuous, and none of the 3 are certain starters. It is likely that very few wickets will be taken by England in a Test series scenario, and that those that do will be spread around with no standout performer. I remember Graeme Hick once being leading wicket-taker in India, and I think that a surprise could be in store again when few wickets need to be taken to be top. As a near-certain starter, sure to be used as a fill-in in tiring conditions, and perhaps liable to induce some over-confident strokes, Ian Bell looks one of the better 100-1 bets I've seen.

Baseball again

The draw has obviously been set up for the US to progress as unhindered as possible to the final. The other strongest side in their half, and reflected in the betting, is Japan, so a semi-final between the two is anticipated. Which makes the 20-1 price offered by VC a bit large, with 1/3 the odds each way, so, should that all pan out, it's giving better than 5-1 on Japan in a one-off game which is way too big, especially when the USA has no obvious ace pitcher for that scenario, and of course, should they do so, then 20-1 on a one-off final. I don't genuinely think Japan without their MLB stars will be strong enough to beat USA but they're likely to be more committed pre-season, and the price is just too good not to take.

World Baseball Classic revisited

I'm trying to stand back from analysing the World Baseball Classic to find some reason not to keep backing Venezuela at 10-1. As the squads take more shape, the Venezuela pitching looks a different class to anything else in the competition, and they have just won the Caribbean series for the first time in many years, so the team is in form, confident and unified. Obviously the Dominican Republic batting line-up will take some getting through, 3 times in the tournament if it pans out, but it is unlikely to be in any sort of form. The short pitch count in the early rounds is also likely to be in Venezuela's favour with the pitching depth available. The main concerns are that the tournament has basically been set up to guarantee the US gets into the final, and well-rested at that, and that the Venezuela semi-final is likely to be against the Dominican Republic, so Santana may be used then instead of the final. But even then the US is likely to treat it like an all-star game, the roster looks set up this way, and I'd still take Freddy Garcia or Carlos Zambrano in a one-off game against a team who I just can't see throwing themselves preseason around with their bosses watching, and, for nostalgia's sake possibly Clemens starting. I'm more than happy with the 10-1, looking forward to watching it, and if it pans out as I suspect, then it'll be a pretty substantial win.